Before we get into the Mailbag, I want to first off say Happy Holidays! I hope you’re enjoying the season however you’ve been spending it!

If you enjoy my work and would like to further support me, any support on my Patreon (and a subscription to my website here) is incredibly appreciated and helpful.

I have some stuff I’m extremely excited about in the works for January, but any money earned through my Patreon is currently my main form of income. I’m so excited about where things are headed for this coming year, but I need as much assistance as I can get to kickstart 2025.

December Mailbag

any player(s) whose stock is 📈📈📈 after you published your initial 2025 mock?

— Three-Fifths Mafia ☄️ (@michaelmcgee) December 20, 2024

There are a multitude of players that have taken strides this season, but the context has shifted for so many which has been interesting in evaluating this class. Here are 3 players I have felt make impactful steps towards next level translation.

Zaay Green has taken 27 threes in her last seven games, making 17 of them (45.9%) after being relatively gunshy from deep to start the year. I don’t expect Zaay to just become a 40+ percent 3 point shooter on a whim from now on, but the confidence and willingness is massive. While the efficacy needs to match of course, showing the willingness to always take the open three quickly is more important to forcing a closeout than anything else.

Green’s vision and ability to make plays in transition at her size is her best attribute for the next level, in my opinion. Expanding range consistently to open the ability to play with that versatility is massive.

Seeing Temira Poindexter play in a role more in line with what I envision her being at the next level has made me much more confident in her ability to quickly adapt to the pros. The talent was undeniable at Tulsa, but watching her with Kansas State, you’ve gotten to see her really hone in as a versatile defender that brings great physicality on the ball and a strong ability to make plays on rotations with her length and closing speed. More of a combo forward, her decision-making has also looked cleaner in a more off-ball role, cutting her turnovers down substantially, and also not showing any hesitation. She is an absolute gunner from deep, getting up just under 6 attempts from deep per game (It’s worth noting that she’s shooting nearly the same amount of 3’s per game as last season on a per minute & possession basis). I could totally see her playing herself into a real shot at a roster spot

Lastly, Shay Holle. I have always been a fan of Shay’s game, but I feel I should’ve been higher on her in actual ranking prior. She is probably the best guard/wing athlete in this Draft not named Saniya Rivers, and that is meaningful. At 6’ tall, Shay can really sit down and guard on the ball while wrecking off the ball, something I think we could see more in a different defensive system. While she’s dealt with some slumps as a shooter this season, her shot has grown monumentally the past few seasons, and her confidence has been key, as seen in the Notre Dame game (4 of 8 from beyond). She’s a good cutter, excels running in transition, and can attack closeouts. While she plays a smaller role and doesn’t have a gaudy box score, I think she’s the kind of player that could really thrive at the next level as a plug and play wing that doesn’t need the ball in her hands to be impactful.

I've stated for a while that the "point guards struggle in their first year" take (minus few acceptions) is rooted in that position being weak the last 10 years. The PGs in the next couple years will likely prove that take wrong since they're more talented. How do you see it?

— Andrea!!! (@Boredy_Mcbored) December 20, 2024

This is such a fascinating question, and one I’ve been captivated by for the last year and change. I think it’s two-fold. 

On one hand, we have great guard talent coming in the next few seasons, and versatile guard talent at that. There are score first bursty advantage creators, tall combos who excel in pick and roll, and savvy visionaries that win with pace and their feel for the game. 

There’s an element of playing against the greats of the game that is difficult and requires acclimation, re: Caitlin’s first month of her rookie season (I don’t think she is a fair comparison for most, given she had an all-time great first season). But, there’s also the element of what a player brings to force acclimation from the league to them. That’s the shift.

So many of the guards have had to change in the past few seasons, as being a one-dimensional facilitator is just not realistic in the game. I think the “struggle” has been that combo guards (two in a one’s body) have had to take over a lot of point duties as the league has started to adjust to modern spacing, pacing, and fundamentals. We saw a similar shift in the NBA as the Warriors took hold in the mid-2010’s.

Now, we have players coming into the league that have played in this sort of setting since their AAU days. They grew up watching the Warriors, seeing the game change in the W, and the fallout that that’s had across youth basketball, and that can’t go underdiscussed. This isn’t meant as a slight to “true point guards” but the reality is that the best player you can be at the guard spot is well rounded. You need to be a threat to attack off the dribble. You need to be a threat with your vision and able to manipulate defensive coverages. You need to be someone who has to be guarded without the ball. You need to be able to dictate tempo. You need to be able to hold your own on defense or be so offensively gifted that you buy good graces.

I’d argue that more is asked of guards (and any position) now than ever before. Everyone needs to be a threat, a decision-maker, and a playmaker on either end. It’s not easy stuff to just learn on the fly, which is why I think we’re seeing the new wave of guards who have done so their whole lives take over.

Andrea asked a follow-up question about what is the most under-appreciated/important aspect of scouting and the Draft that the general public misses. Wrote about that in a separate article because I loved the question.

Do you think the next W CBA should amend the eligibility rules?

— amy (@yamstone) December 22, 2024

In short, my answer is no. Will it happen? I have no actual knowledge on that, but my assumption is that we will eventually see the Draft eligibility rules change, and sooner rather than later.

I want to start by saying that I totally understand where JuJu Watkins was coming from in recent comments without being in her shoes. JuJu will be a franchise and league altering talent, someone who would be productive and likely a star in the league right now as a player.

JuJu is the exception, not the rule. 

There are just a handful of players that are physically and consistently ready to walk into the league and play against grown adults that have been pros since before they even picked up a ball. That’s difficult!

Again, a player like JuJu is someone who transcends norms, and should we shift the rules for individual players? I’m not sure. Does it make sense for JuJu to stay in college for a full 4 years? I’m also not sure! 

Secondly, I think what tends to get lost in the sauce with these discussions is that 97% of college athletes are not ready to leave school early for the pros, at least not in this current landscape, largely due to things that are not in their control. Even if you’re physically ready to be a pro, it’s different to have that focus level required to be at the next level. It’s a crazy adjustment to make when you have 5 months between Draft and training camp (NBA). It’s an INSANE adjustment when you have one week.

It’s so much less to me about total roster spots available in the league, and more about lack of roster depth. There isn’t room for W teams to carry developmental players: the second an injury happens, you need a replacement, and a coaching staff is (understandably) reluctant to trust a rookie to fill in and play meaningful minutes. Even just in this past year, we saw multiple teams that had rookies or second year players on roster who opted for 10-day contracts to fill voids instead of leaning into youth. There is minimal security if you are not an immediate impact player or fit for where you get drafted.

That’s a lot to handle as a player in your early 20’s that’s been the best player on your team the majority of your life. How do you handle a schedule that becomes so much less controlled day to day, and you need to figure out what that looks like? It takes a lot for most young players to find themselves outside the game to best situate themselves to excel as a pro… and I just think that’s that much harder to do when you’re even younger than a senior in college. Every person is different of course, but experience is such a massive separator.

I don’t want to overgeneralize, but by and large, the W is not a player development league, it’s a competitive league. You can make some strides in-season, but player development is largely decentralized in the W. Players are playing for multiple teams a season, and while you can advise players on what to work on as a staff/organization, it’s just different and not close to comparable when that player is playing for a different team with different goals while typically across an ocean.

I think the next step for the W is to become a league that DOES develop their own players in full. With the season continuing to expand and more money coming in, it’s a necessity, but there’s also more room for that to become a precedent. However, I can’t state enough that we NEED that roster depth along with actual expansion. The development will not happen on a large scale until we get to a place where teams can actually afford to carry depth. There’s also the aspect of having more teams opening the door for some longer organizational development routes. 

Nearly every organization has a mandate to win to a degree, given that more teams will make the playoffs than miss it in any given year. Opening the door for longer visions of team building is key.

I say all that without even acknowledging the aspect of marketability that comes with exposure at the college level for 4 seasons. The W (and more importantly the networks that showcase the W) are not adept at actually building out storytelling and visibility (I’d argue the same for college, but universities have a much larger built in and historical connection in most settings). Is it good to lose out on the extra years of what that can do for preparing people to be excited for you at the next level? Again, I don’t know. Acknowledging that the things I would do and how I would go about things are not the way things will actually play out, I lean towards no.

But again, a player like JuJu transcends that both in talent and image. I view Caitlin Clark as being on a similar level, but still can’t help thinking about how much more she blew up during her senior season. The talent had been there, the marketing and visibility changed.

I don’t trust the current state of sports media (and by that I mean the handful of companies that hold 95% of the visibility, there are some wonderful independent outlets and journalists) to actually organically push things, which we’ve seen be an issue for the young stars of the NBA.

To put it in shorter terms: I don’t think it is a realistic thing for the vast majority of players given the way the league is currently situated, but think it’s more likely than not that it will happen.

Maybe thoughts on IF some of these players (Azzi) did declare where they would go.

— Liz Froment (@LFroment) December 22, 2024

Azzi Fudd is a wonderful basketball player, my favorite player to watch in college. For starters, she’s spoken multiple times about her emphasis on getting stronger as she rehabbed, and that’s been evident when she’s on the court. Her defense has looked a good bit better, she’s finished well on the interior. She’s an absolutely phenomenal shooter and decision maker, key in excelling as a guard at the next level (I envision her as more of a 2 at the next level with some potential to play the 3 in smaller lineups).

I just really want her to be healthy for a full season or the majority of one for her own sake before I even start thinking about Draft stuff. I’d likely imagine she’s in the boat of just wanting to play and be a college athlete without even having the added pressure of thinking about the next level right now.

Here’s to hoping for a great season for her and a clean bill of health!

This is awesome. Have been going back to you recent mock. Some questions:

1. Id be really interested your take on a mock of all college players if they were eligible for this draft. (Freshman and up)
2. You mentioned this is a deep draft. I would love more context (1 of ?)

— Nathan (@NathanOfNote) December 20, 2024

On the follow-up question with respect to skills the league values (or should be/what I do) I will point you to that same piece mentioned above. Decision-making is the most important thing in the game of basketball on either end of the court, so being versatile and quick in problem solving is what I would consider the most important skill to contributing to winning basketball in almost all cases.

On why this is a deep draft, I think I would state that it’s widely possible that we end up seeing this look like an average draft on paper, but to me, when I look at this group, where the game is at, where it’s headed… I think you’re making a mistake if you don’t find a player in the first 20-25 picks that can fight for a roster spot in camp.

That’s not to say that every player will stick, it’s virtually impossible to get a player that fits at every draft position. It’s also worth noting that every team doesn’t think the same way I would (I’m not saying I’m right, it’s just my views).

My point is more so that if every team decided to be bought into where the game is and going instead of stuck in some play styles that are going to struggle in a postseason setting, there are a wealth of players in this class that could add value in roles. We’re now at the stage where these players coming out of college have seen and played in the post-Golden State basketball landscape since they picked up a ball. Playing in ball screen and read heavy systems predicated on spacing and pace has been more of a norm now than if you were coming up in the early to mid-2010s.

Put that in tandem with this being the final year of COVID years impacting the Draft (technically last year was the last year for it to be a decision, but this year has the players who chose to return or transfer one last time) and there’s a fairly deep pool of players that could develop into solid rotation players in the right setting and with the right mindset. I didn’t feel the same last year. There was a much larger gap from pick 12-15 to pick 30 than I think there will be this year.

Thank you to all who submitted questions! I know I didn’t get to each individual one but tried to hit on the things that stood out most, and I intend to answer those other questions over the next month with some larger pieces I already envisioned!

Happy New Year’s to you all!