2025 WNBA Draft Prospect Watch: TCU vs. South Carolina

Winter weekends bring us some of the best matchups in college basketball, and tonight’s game between TCU and South Carolina is THE primetime game of the weekend.

You can watch the game at 7pm EST on ESPN2 or ESPN+

Each of these teams bring different aspects to the game that provide lenses for which to view it. With a plethora of talented players on each side, and multiple players who are in their final year of college basketball, what can we look forward to in this game from the Seniors that will likely be in the 2025 WNBA Draft?

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Te-Hina Paopao

Paopao is who I would currently gauge as the top prospect for the next level headed into this game. While her shooting prowess both on and off the ball is well known, she’s made some strides inside the arc.

I do want to note quickly that her volume of shots taken inside the arc is roughly the same as last year per Synergy Stats. When filtering for halfcourt attempts, you siphon out runouts and transition attempts. Those still matter, but for looking at guards, I think the halfcourt attempts are crucial, because many of them are going to be (or should be) self created when looking at next level play.

• 2023-24: 32.2% of Paopao’s halfcourt shots were layups or floaters (84/261)

• 2024-25: 38.7% of Paopao’s halfcourt shots have been layups and floaters (29/75)

This is not meant to be disparaging, but it’s important to put the data up for comparison. I do feel the data somewhat undersells some strides in process, however. Te-Hina has made some really great strides with her patience when getting downhill, Nashing around the rim and in the paint to unlock another angle as a scorer or passer. That continued growth will be critical for her game, and I’ve loved seeing her tap into more of that.

That patience and improvements as an athlete have been key in her shooting even better from those areas (15/29… 51.7%) this season compared to last (37/84… 44%). It will be worth monitoring how those numbers hold up, because the floater in particular has been at a level I would expect hardly any player to maintain.

The Iowa State game is the main game where we’ve gotten extended stretches of Paopao really leading offense out of ball screens, and there was a ton of good process within that.

Against a much more athletic TCU team with a dominant and lengthy rim protector in the middle, this will be Paopao’s stiffest test so far when looking to the next level outside the Gamecocks’ lone loss to UCLA. I really want to see her get some opportunities to work out of two player game and against Sedona Prince. She struggled a bit with the length of the Bruins (as did the whole team), so this will be a key area to show on tape.

Defensively, I’ll also be very keen to see how Paopao plays as a ball screen defender. She’s clearly put in work to get in the best condition possible, and has had quality moments against good competition.

TCU is in the 99th percentile in Division 1 for pick and roll frequency, and tied for 26th in efficiency (For reference, the highest ranked team in frequency on SC’s schedule thus far is Clemson, ranked 63rd in PnR frequency). This is a pro style team that plays with pro style personnel that puts you in a damned if you do damned if you don’t bind on defense. Screen navigation is essential at the next level, and probably what I was most hopeful to see improvement in from Paopao this season. Big opportunity tonight!

Hailey Van Lith

Van Lith has made demonstrative improvements as a facilitator since just last season. This system is a better fit for Hailey, but she’s also clearly put in the requisite time and effort to become borderline elite at the reads necessary to make Mark Campbell’s spread system pop.

She’s shooting career highs inside the arc as well, worth monitoring as the Horned Frogs start head into conference play. Point blank, this is the most comfortable Van Lith has looked as a point guard, and that’s huge.

I really want to see what happens when there are moments that separation can’t be created. What does it look like when the system breaks down? When passing windows get clogged or more obscure?

Van Lith has gotten so good at making the right reads timely, but to really turn heads for the W, making those proactive reads and plays are what’s necessary to be a guard getting drafted in the first round.

This SC team has a lot of speed and length and has been better connected on defense to start the season than either of the other Top 25 teams TCU has faced. More importantly, with veteran bigs and forwards, I’ll be really intrigued to see how SC tries to take away the two-player game between Van Lith and Prince, as no one has been able to yet (they’ve been unreal!)

Similarly to Paopao, I’m eager to see Van Lith hold up defensively in a myriad of ways. Being able to stay in front of your assignment, and work in tandem with screening partners to contain actions is vital at the next level. While SC isn’t a ball screen heavy team, that makes it more important to watch how she can contain without any blowbys or getting beat in isolation.

Bree Hall

I mainly just want to see Bree Hall be aggressive as an offensive player. She’s waxed and waned a bit with that in my opinion, and she’s just to good to pass up or not even look at some of the attempts that come her way in the flow of the offense. SC will be better for it if she takes those in stride!

I don’t feel any differently about her game, it’s just about finding that rhythm and consistency, which are huge for immediate impact in the W.

I imagine Hall will take on what’s probably going to be the most important assignment defensively tonight, guarding Madison Conner. As incredibly good as the HVL/Prince two player game is, Conner is that extra 10% that takes the TCU offense from very good to elite.

A wildly active and slippery movement threat, Hall will have her work cut out for her chasing her off staggers, tracking in transition, and containing secondary ball screens as the offense whirs to life. She’s so good at these things already, so watching her and Conner (likely) matchup will be fun.

It’s a fun thought process for me though, one I’ve gone over a multitude of times watching TCU. I really would contemplate putting Hall on Van Lith. I like using that length and recovery ability to try and stifle smaller ballhandlers. I thought Notre Dame did a good job with this for 2.5 quarters, but started to struggle containing Prince with their bigs in action, so things fell apart and they never found a way to get stops from there.

Point being, there’s room to mix up coverages and ideas, and Hall should be central to that.

Sedona Prince

Prince has played some absolutely massive games when needed most this season, putting up 31 points and 16 boards against NC State and a 20/20 double double with 8 blocks against Notre Dame in the Cayman Islands.

The production has been undeniable. She’s been efficient, stayed out of foul trouble, and been of equal importance to that two player game as HVL.

I’m not sure where I land on Prince yet in this Draft, but you can see where her game could potentially fit at the next level as an anchor in the paint, fluid roller in the pick and roll, and potential as a pick and pop threat.

In this matchup, I’ll be incredibly interested to see how SC looks to draw Prince out of the paint.

While she does have some mobility at 6’7, there were times last year that I felt TCU’s defense could really struggle if she was put in action and had to play away from the paint. This is a different team of course, but I’ll consistently point to what happened to Brionna Jones for the Sun in the WNBA Playoffs, essentially played off the floor for the majority of the postseason. She’s a hell of a player, but it’s just getting very difficult to keep true bigs on the floor. Can Sedona show that she has the foot speed to hang?

Notes

• Sania Feagin: I wouldn’t be shocked if Feagin ends up getting a shot in the W. She’s efficient, has improved as a decision-maker, plays bigger than she’s listed, and has been consistent for the Gamecocks on the glass and protecting the paint. If she performs well against Prince and this TCU offense, that’ll be another thought put in the forefront when thinking about the backend of the Draft or potentially a training camp invite.

• Madison Conner: I love Conner’s game and it’s been dope to see her flourish in Texas the past year and a half. She is about the best shooter in the country, with deep range, versatility in her movements, and quick in release. The biggest questions I’ll always come back to: Who does she defend at the next level? What happens when she’s run off the arc without playmaking windows? Conner is a very good passer, including on the move reads, but she’s a career 38.1% shooter on two point attempts. This is a great opportunity to show that she can make plays inside the arc.