What's in a Phade Away? Analyzing Napheesa Collier's Game-winner

I’ve witnessed a plethora of improbable moments in sports: Jalen Watts-Jackson’s blocked punt return, Warriors/Thunder, the 2016 Cavs run, pretty much anything LeBron did to the Toronto Raptors, Connecticut’s 22-2 run to come from 11 down and advance to the WNBA Finals in 2022. 

The Minnesota Lynx cemented themselves in that pantheon of CW level sports drama, after overcoming an 18 point deficit against the Liberty. Chalking it up to that deficit itself undersells just how wild this was: that deficit occurred just about four minutes into the 2nd quarter (39-21, New York). With 5:20 on the clock in the fourth quarter, Betnijah Laney-Hamilton nails a three, puts New York back up by 15, and the game looks close to iced.

The Lynx would outscore the Liberty 15-3 over the final five minutes to take the game to overtime after Breanna Stewart split her free throws to close the game.

Courtney Williams hit the most insane three off an offensive board, leading to a four-point play, and she was fantastic all night, whirring Minnesota’s offense into action and canning a multitude of tough buckets. For reference, Williams is 6/10 from deep over her last three games, including a 3 for 3 outing to close out the Sun and a 2 for 6 showing last night. She made just 23 threes during 40 regular season games.

Williams embodied the words once preached by Santana Moss.

While Kayla McBride wasn’t the player with late game heroics, the Lynx aren’t in the position to be in those moments without her all around impact. She was a vital engine, the leading scorer for Minnesota across regulation.

I am still captivated and non-stop thinking about Napheesa Collier’s game winning fade away. I can’t reiterate enough: To have that game, with that many absurd moments (I don't want to complain at length about officiating, but that last 45 seconds of the 4th quarter was insanely called in all directions), and to cap it off like that…. That’s quite literally what legends are made of.

To start, to make that play over Jonquel Jones, a great defender who made a good defensive play here, is exceptional. However, it’s just not a play that’s surprising from Phee. That’s not to diminish the moment, but more to point out that Napheesa Collier has worked herself into being one of the very best players we’ve ever seen operating from the middle of the floor.

According to Second Spectrum, 24 players in the WNBA took at least 25 or more fadeaway jumpers this season, with Collier ranking 6th in efficiency (a healthy 47.4%, while taking the 3rd most fadeaways per game in the WNBA).

It’s worth pointing out that while this is a very good percentage on an incredibly difficult shot, it doesn’t quite touch the elite marks of Breanna Stewart and A’ja Wilson, both well above 50% on fadeaways, which is ludicrous. However, I use this as an important metric in painting in the finer details of the picture of Phee in the mid-post.

Percentages and efficiency are important, particularly over the course of a regular season. Yet, when we’re throwing out some of the larger sample size ability and it comes down to one game at a time, the point is that you cannot let Napheesa Collier get to a clean fadeaway. That’s easier said than done, as this Minnesota team is built perfectly to amplify Phee’s best attributes, while she simultaneously raises them up with the nuances of her floor game.

For starters, with her 6’6 wingspan, great pop on her jumper, and an already very high release point, just look at the apex of where she gets this shot off. How do you contest that?

Let’s put this further into perspective. If Jones overplays that initial pivot forward by Collier, she’s a phenomenal finisher at the rim and always a threat to go to the line. Per Synergy Sports, Collier finished as the 11th most efficient player in the W at the rim amongst players who had at least 100 field goal attempts (41 total), with a pristine 61.1% field goal percentage.

To take it a step further, she’s comfortable handling the ball and finishing with either hand. Funnel her towards the rim and maintain your height, and she’ll push baseline to use the basket to protect the shot. Try to force her hand on the fadeaway and she can pivot into a brutally graceful step through.

Let’s rewind a little further in the play.

The Lynx run Kayla McBride off a staggered set, but started in the middle of the floor. With Alanna Smith stationed as the receiver, she pulls the rim protection (Jones) away from the basket, a key aspect here. Smith then turns to quickly fire that pass to the wide open McBride.

With Collier as the second screener in the staggers for McBride, her defender (Stewart) has to jump out and switch onto McBride: McBride shot the highest percentage on triples out of the six players who made 100 or more this season (40.7%).

This takes the defender that New York wants on Phee out of the picture and Phee gets Betnijah Laney-Hamilton switched onto her. Laney-Hamilton is one of the best defenders in the W, but is at a notable height disadvantage to Collier. She knows she’s not going to be able to contest a mid-range rise up from Collier, and calls to Jones for the scram switch.

Is this the right play? I would absolutely say so, but it speaks to the difficulty of this Lynx team. Napheesa Collier is a walking mismatch, and they do such a good job collectively of accentuating that by spreading the floor and moving the ball. Laney-Hamilton starts her signal to switch at about the 16 second mark, and Courtney Williams is entering the ball off a crispy bounce pass to Collier 1.8 seconds while Jones is still a yard away. She makes contact with Collier as soon as Collier catches the ball, but Phee is moving immediately and wasting no time.

That’s what always stands out to be about Collier and this team: Time.

The margins are so slim against the Lynx, because they maximize their spacing, their efficiency, and minimize the time that you have to react. It’s an absolutely deadly combination.

The added difficulty of putting Collier in the middle of the floor is that she is such an adept ball mover and facilitator. Collier was already efficient in the post this season, shooting 48.1% on post-up scoring opportunities per Synergy (while drawing fouls on 17.4% of her shots, the 6th highest rate of any player who posted up at least 50 times).

Factor in her playmaking however, and she goes from a very good post threat to one of the very best in the league. When including playmaking opportunities in her post-up looks, Collier averages 1.072 points per possession in the post per Synergy, equivalent to a 58.9% true-shooting clip, well above the 53.6% league average. That’s remarkable efficiency. For reference, the New York Liberty had a 56.1% true-shooting percentage as a team this season.

If you double Napheesa Collier, who are you helping off of? Alanna Smith shot 39.8% from three on good volume this season, and provided a major difficulty for the Sun in playing with size or using her as a help off point defensively. We already mentioned McBride, and Bridget Carleton shot 44.4% from deep, arguably the best shooter in the league this year. Williams, who isn’t typically a shooter on volume, has turned into a flamethrower in early October.

Stewart even helping slightly at the nail off of McBride as she does is dangerous. Collier can make most any pass out of the post with routine precision, and that almost always leads to a shot that’s even deadlier than her already potent ability to score in the confines of the free throw line to the rim.

This team is incredible. Napheesa Collier is incredible. Courtney Williams had me ready to jump out of my chair. The Lynx challenge so many ideologies and philosophies, continuing the evolution of play style in the WNBA and modern basketball, and it’s a beautiful thing. Bring on Game 2 with swiftness.