2025 WNBA Draft: Olivia Miles Can Change the Calculus of the Class

Olivia Miles is suited back up for Notre Dame after missing last season due to injury, and is already out and running, tipping off her season with a triple double. She and Hannah Hidalgo have already started to find exciting mesh points as the most dynamic guard duo in the country, and this Irish team has immense potential to do special things as the season unfolds.

Watching her back on court and seeing her play with the confidence and verve that makes her so unique, it’s clear as day (as it always has been) that Miles is a top flight prospect for the WNBA.

That’s kind of a No Sh*t type thing to say, but it’s just true.

Miles is eligible for the 2025 WNBA Draft per WNBA rules, but also has an extra season of eligibility extending through next season (Which is why I have her on the 2026 Draft Board at present). I would start by saying that the best decision for Olivia Miles is the decision that Olivia Miles makes! It’s just awesome to see her healthy and thriving.

However, I wanted to contextualize how I view her as a prospect and why she’s going to be a gamechanger whenever she does enter, a surefire lottery pick, and a player that teams in the W don’t just covet, but need.

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The WNBA is experiencing a rapid shift in ideology and modernization of the game, kickstarted a few seasons ago (but also progressively in increments over time), and only gaining even further traction in 2024. As each new team enters the league and franchises shift, efficiency, pace, space, and versatility are only going to matter more.

Looking at Atlanta hiring Karl Smesko, one of the pioneers of modern basketball and someone always ahead of the trend, is another clear notion pointing to this. If you are not playing basketball in ways that are routinely efficient and effective, or building towards that, you are behind by a country mile right now.

One of the great differentiators in the league at present: guard play.

There has been a notable shift in the kinds of guards that are prioritized, and that’s largely due to this efficiency leap. I will note however, that there are more ways to look at efficiency and spacing than just “shooting”.

Shooting is essential in the modern game and a key part in spacing, but playmaking, assertiveness, and quickness in perception all mesh into the conglomerate of spacing.

To me, efficiency is as simple as this: how consistently can you create quick, easy, effective offense? How often can you generate those kinds of looks for yourself and teammates?

So much of creating efficient offense is being able to consistently create advantages. In other words, being able to make a defense react, scramble, or have to adapt. Elite passing and playmaking, to me, is the most essential aspect of creating advantages.

Advanced Playmaking

Reactive passers, playmakers who typically make passes that are somewhat dictated by how a defense reacts to an action, make up the majority of players.

Proactive passers are rare, and highly impactful. Those are the passers that create windows with manipulation and dip into levels of vision that defenses can’t predict or account for.

This is technically more of a reactive pass, but it shows Miles’ vision and comfortability as a playmaker and someone who can manipulate defense. Most players get that kind of snug pick and roll look, rush the basket, and it’s make or miss. Miles takes the momentum of the reject and a defender trying to recover to create an advantage and open up a pass that most players aren’t going to make on the fly like that. That’s big time, but also routine for Miles.

Miles fits into that category as a proactive passer. She has an elite feel for when to pass, how to pass, how to adapt for personnel and situations, and is one of the better outlet and transition playmakers in the sport. The transition aspect means a ton, as being effective and consistent at pushing and finding odd-man advantages is so key in building out offensive efficiency.

I view Miles as a player that will come into the league as conservatively, a Top 5 passer in the WNBA. That’s not a denigration of the passing talent in the league, it’s a testament to how special Miles’ vision and delivery is. That doesn’t mean there won’t be growing pains coming into the league, but her playmaking is so elite and standout that there’s also the element of teams and defenses having to go through an adaptation to her as well.

Passing isn’t created equally. You can grow in how you make reads, but especially once we’re hitting early to mid-20’s, it’s pretty unheard of to see significant playmaking growth with respect to court vision and unlocking areas of the court. As an aside, I’d consider how a player processes and maps the court as an athletic trait. You can’t just watch and rep film to the point of becoming the best passer in the league: you can hone and sharpen what you have, but again, everyone is not built or born to be an elite playmaker.

Scoring Gravity & Growth

In order to get the most out of playmaking, you have to put that in tandem with enough scoring to make defenses care. You can be an otherworldly passer, but if the defense doesn’t treat you consistently as a threat, you’re not going to hit your highest upside as a playmaker.

We’ll talk about shooting from outside the arc in a moment, but to start, Miles is a more well-rounded scorer than I feel she typically gets credit for.

She’s adept attacking the basket, with a graceful and crafty package of layups including trademark finger roll and extension layups. Miles shot 47.8% on drives per Synergy Sports in her last full season (2022-23), an efficient mark for a 5’10 guard. She possesses a very good first step along with a tight handle and fantastic change of pace skills. Point blank, she can create an advantage off the dribble out of a screen or one on one very consistently. She’s not overly rushed attacking the basket either, which is key in being an effective finisher.

I will add however, that continuing to expand as a player who can take and make floaters/runners effectively will be a key aspect for the next level. Playing against more length and athleticism in W frontcourts makes that in-between game so important for lead guards and creators. How do you drag out rim protection and put them in a bind? I’d consider an “effective” floater one where you shoot 40% or above. 

While that doesn’t equate nearly to being the same as a layup in points per possession, you see the efficiency lines blur when you look at the halfcourt. Yes, a player can shoot incredibly well at the rim, but that number doesn’t matter as much if you’re driving at Jonquel Jones or Alanna Smith and that shot is altered. Being efficient enough on the difficult shots to alter defensive coverages is where you need to get to, but again, that’s something I’m looking for throughout a rookie contract, not right off the bat.

Shooting Touch & Confidence

On top of that, Miles has shown growth in her in-between game quite a bit during her time in South Bend, and I expect more of that as the season unfurls.

In 2022-23, Miles shot 41.3% on pull-up jumpers inside the arc (61 attempts). Most of those looks are coming off of ball screens and the exact kind of difficult shot mentioned when looking at the float game.

I think what stands out most to me in Olivia’s mid-range game is the ease and comfort of it. Efficiency is important and cannot be undersold, but especially when looking at a prospect, how comfortably and confidently a player can get into a shot matters greatly to me. There are always going to be barriers to shot growth and ceiling, but I find that confidence and comfortability (or lack thereof) in taking those shots is one of the most key indicators in how much that shot can develop.

A confident 33% shooter from deep that takes 7 per game will almost always command more respect and reaction from a defense than a player that shoots 40% hesitantly. Unequivocally to me, the most important part of spacing is timing, and being able to reduce how much time is spent not putting the ball in the basket or working to make that happen. Hesitancy doesn’t fly literally or figuratively.

Growing as a shooter and becoming a player that needs to be guarded at all times is essential, without question. Guards are asked to do more now than they ever have been: initiate offense, push in transition, settle in the halfcourt, be respected off the ball, don’t be a target on defense.

Hitting higher levels as a shooter is going to be key for Miles to hit the highest levels she can as a player. I’d argue we’ve seen growth already in her, something she put a ton of work into as she recovered from injury this past season. While we need to see the data play out, I’m very confident in her ability to become someone that will command closeouts and defenses with the threat of the ball in her hands.

Let's say the shot doesn’t play out. What does it look like if Miles is more of a 30% shooter from deep throughout her career?

Miles brings a level of playmaking, vision, and dynamism on the ball that I feel comfortable saying she would be a starting quality point guard in the WNBA regardless. I look across the league and see a number of teams that were not solidified with a starter at the point. Part of that is due to injury, but much of it is due to that changing nature of what is required for an efficient offense. Even without a fully refined jumper, Miles would bring too much value to not be a significant gamechanger.

Roster build around her will matter, of course, as it does with any player. If you’re not leaning into the strengths of an elite playmaker and transition threat, I question your organizational values in 2024.

Similarities and Contextualization of Elite Skills

Miles has drawn comparisons to NBA great Magic Johnson, which I find apt when looking at how she attacks with pace and delivers the ball. Yet, I will point to a comp even closer to home that I feel bears even more resemblance: Ticha Penicheiro.

I really wanted to include film of Ticha from her time at Old Dominion, but I have yet to find another way to workaround clipping YouTube since Streamable put an end to that.

Here are some games of hers I recommend from the 1996-97 season in which Old Dominion made a run to the National Championship Game.

• Final Four: Stanford

• National Title Game: Tennessee

For reference, there’s plenty you can get into and watch of Ticha in the W, but I love putting side by side tape of players in college at the same time. It’s most apt for looking at where they were at the same time frame and point of development as players (stay tuned for more of that this season!).

I don’t want to put on undue expectations that someone is going to walk into the league and become an eventual Hall of Famer, but the similarities between Miles and Penicheiro are striking. The flash and flair in playmaking is a stark comparison, often using soccer-esque no looks, footwork, and creativity to open passing windows where most would see cement walls. Particularly in the penchant for jump passing and fakes, there’s a tangible connection.

Both have a herky jerky, but still smooth, pacing and control of the ball. The playmaking is remarkable of course, and the vision is key, but the ability to keep the ball on a string is what makes both so dynamic. 

In that game I linked above against Stanford in the Final Four, there’s a moment where Ticha is half falling over due to inadvertent contact and yet she still somehow weaves and bobs through traffic, avoiding multiple pokes at the ball and staying alive to draw a foul. That kind of stuff is rare, and something I feel you see with Miles (and there’s even more to tap into with Nash dribbling at the next level).

Old Dominion actually pushed the ball a surprising amount given the time, and that was of course a huge part of what she did in the W as well. Two taller point guards that are adept at grabbing boards and pushing.

I know looking at Penicheiro’s stats, she wasn’t necessarily a big time scorer, but I think if she were coming up today, that would look different. You see in the halfcourt how ODU, and teams in the W, would often play with two posts inside the free throw line. It’s not “bad” basketball, it’s just what it was! Things evolve and grow!

If she came up with the same emphasis of guard creation instead of being a pure floor general, there’d undoubtedly be a greater scoring load.

I will point out, however, that I feel Miles is bit more explosive. Part of that again is how things have changed in the last 25-30 years in player development and youth athletics, but it also just stands out to me. That plays a part in getting to the basket more cleanly and having increased scoring potential. Both can get into the crafty layups, but I think Ticha relied a bit more on strength and height at the time as opposed to burst where Liv thrives.

I’ll be really interested to see how Miles’ post game and ability to use strength will grow, because post-ups are such a huge way in opening up playmaking angles and additional scoring opportunities. Think of Chelsea Gray and how she creates the need for drawn help with her fader.

As an additional point though, I think about the things Miles can do with an empty corner pistol action, more ghosted ball screens, and anything that gives her the opportunity to use her mind (her sharpest tool) to attack with quickness. She sees advantages so quickly.

So all of that is to point out that Ticha Penicheiro was an all-time great while being a fairly below average shooter and scorer. Her playmaking mattered that much, as did her defense. They’re different defenders, of course (I think Liv is a solid defender with room to grow in consistency: she has good tools and vision). The game has changed, as has the need for more scoring from lead guards, but the necessity of creative, proactive, consistent playmaking has only grown.

Regardless of the Draft that Miles does enter, she will be a gamechanger.

However, I look at this class and have to point out again that she would undoubtedly be a lottery pick in my eyes, and a foundational piece for any franchise. Especially if Chicago were to wind up with the 2nd pick in the Draft, I think it would be a mistake to pass up on Miles if she were to declare for 2025. Draft Boards and rankings are great for looking at and evaluating a class, but they largely go out the door when looking at individual cases and scenarios for each team. As much as I believe in Kiki Iriafen and Dominique Malonga as longterm prospects, the teams in the lottery NEED guards.

I could see Dallas or Washington looking to opt for a frontcourt player (particularly Kiki) if they land at 2 this Sunday. It’s hard to tell what rosters will look like as new front office/staffs take over with quite a bit of flexibility for each squad.

Again though, the point remains that Olivia Miles is going to be a significant impactor in either Draft class she ends up in. Any growth made along the way only boosts her in my eyes, and I’m so psyched to see her out on the court and thriving again.

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