Non-Traditional Creation: Serena Sundell & Tyrese Haliburton

I think my favorite aspect of scouting and diving further in player development is when my inherent biases and ideas of what constitutes “Effective Basketball” are challenged. There are softly cemented truths that are molded over time as the game evolves, but by and large they dictate the possibilities of efficiency and impact within player archetypes, particularly in advantage creators/lead guards.

Serena Sundell, Senior guard at Kansas State, is the player in the 2025 WNBA Draft that most brings this push/pull of archetype boundaries to my mind. While no comparison is one to one, Sundell reminds me so much of former Iowa State guard and current Indiana Pacers point guard Tyrese Haliburton. The 2020 NBA Draft was my first full dive into the scouting realm, and I don’t think I could’ve been more wrong on who Haliburton would develop into in the league.

The similarities between them make me want to look at things differently this time around.

I thought Haliburton would be a good player in the NBA, in fact I was pretty sure he was! But, I thought he looked like a certified role player, a high value one, but still not someone I anticipated ever leading a team in usage. While usage doesn’t mean everything, it still stands out that Haliburton finished 8th on his Iowa State squad in usage rate his final season (20.1%). That’s not all that dissimilar from Sundell finishing tied for 5th (20.2%) this past season.

This past season with the Indiana Pacers, Haliburton finished just behind Pascal Siakam with the second highest usage rate on the team (24.6%) and a much higher per possession scoring clip than he did at Iowa State either season. That’s rare.

While I don’t think JuJu Watkins (42.8%) or Caitlin Clark (40.1%), two of the top three usage rate players in the country, should be the threshold for being able to carry and offense (they’re both outliers), they tell a story. Scoring and assisting, for a better term that combines both we’ll use creation, at a high level defines ability to create routinely effective and efficient offense.

Here’s the usage rates from some other high level offense engines:

• Georgia Amoore: 30.6%

• Paige Bueckers: 29.2%

• Dyaisha Fair: 28.1%

• S’Mya Nichols: 27.3%

• Makira Cook: 27%

How did Haliburton buck the trend? Why might Sundell do the same? Why is it crucial to look through a new lens and reassess?

Be sure to check out the Film Room episode with Serena!

One of my first notes written on Haliburton as a scout…. “unlikely to play point guard in the NBA". However, his playmaking and court vision was always standout.

I think you watch Sundell and feel perhaps some of the same notions. She’s an elite court mapper, quick processor, and can make all number of passes with incredible size at the lead guard spot.

Other things that automatically applied to both scouting college:

• Very good but not elite ball-handler

• An effective outside shot that might have some translation questions

• Phenomenal interior touch and scoring craft

• Late-bloomers in development

Scoring Touch

Let’s start with touch and scoring craft, as that’s perhaps the most intriguing and noteworthy aspect to dive into in projection.

As stated earlier, it is RARE to see players become greater scorers as a professional. It’s not just a pure volume equation, but more so looking at how a player can continue to score at a higher clip while maintaining positive efficiency.

In order to be this kind of player that can make a leap headed to the next level, you have to be an outlier in your ability to put the ball in the basket. Haliburton shot 59.2% on two-point shots in 2020 as a Cyclone, landing him in the top five in the Big 12 in 2-point efficiency, the only player that didn’t play in the frontcourt. Sundell shot an eerily similar 59.5% on twos, third in two-point efficiency in the Big 12 ahead of Audi Crooks and Taiyanna Jackson and just behind Ayoka Lee and Taylor Jones.

To add some additional insight per Synergy Sports, Sundell shot

• 60% on half-court layups, ahead of many forwards and centers in the Big 12 (Jackson was at 56.7% and Crooks at 61.9%)

• 61.5% on pull-up twos (39 attempts)

• 60% on drives to the basket (50 attempts)

Sundell is just flat out efficient in everything she does. It’s also evident in watching her that there’s even more that could be unlocked as a scorer. So many of her turnovers are of the “I’m looking to pass instead of to score” variety, killing her dribble to look to make a better play, which again is very Hali-akin.

When you are shooting damn near 60%… you are often the best play!

It would be incorrect to assume that Sundell will walk into the W and score 20 a game, but my point is rather that there is a wealth of scoring to tap into with her. With her height, release point, ability to use angles, and a ton to keep repping out and finding as an off-ball player, there’s more there to unearth.

In a different offensive system that emphasizes pace, transition play, and speed/cutting in the half-court, could Sundell’s scoring be coaxed along?

Part of what’s so intriguing about this past season is that we saw glimpses of that. When star center Ayoka Lee missed time with injury, K-State played a smaller more spread look with Eliza Maupin at the 5. The Wildcats eventually hit a point where they struggled to score, as they lacked a consistent interior threat, but you could see the ideas of what things might look like.

Scoring touch, vision, and ball-handling all go hand in hand here.

Ball-Handling and Screening

You can see a multitude of smaller nuances in here that matter.

In the first clip against Baylor, there’s an early empty corner ball screen with Sundell and Maupin. I love these kinds of screens for taller ball-handlers, because they emphasize why they have the ball, while also adding strain on a defense.

These “touch” screens make it so hard for defenses, particularly when the offense is playing with high pace and motion.

It’s difficult to get over a screen that is never really set, but is still present in your vision and on you for a moment. It’s easy to twist/flip this screen, something Kansas State did often, making it more difficult to go under, while also opening the middle of the floor. It’s also very difficult to ICE this, as again, the screen is never fully set. If you trap it or blitz it, it can slow things down, but that adds necessity to a backline defender in help and opens up a skip.

I could keep going, but the point is that it’s not an easy thing to defend consistently, and it aides the ball-handler in getting downhill traction/creating a quick advantage.

In the second clip, Lee is back and playing, but you see the ghost screen from a bigger shooter and what that opens for Sundell baseline with her quickness in reads. She’s not a traditional first step defense gasher, but if there’s any sort of miscommunication or disadvantage for the defense, Sundell is so quick to exploit it. That’s an entirely different kind of advantage creation, and when paired with size/scoring, it’s potent in different ways.

Also shoutout to Lee for that great seal screen: 5-out isn’t everything!

Compare side by side with Haliburton and there’s of course difference, but you see how this plays out at the pro level in an offensive environment that has more clear prioritization for the advantages that Hali creates.

Teams have done what the Pacers do with screening, but I’ve never seen it to this extent. It’s like playing transition in the half-court: constant movement, running into screens, constant probing and attacking, and multiple options to put pressure on the rim.

The Pacers cycle through guard/guard screens, those touch screens with Myles Turner at the 5, pick and pop looks at the 5, and all types of screens in general from their personnel. They diversify initiation looks with handoffs and off-ball screens into on-ball screens for Haliburton.

It is certainly a lot to keep track of as a defender, but also as an offensive player. You need to have the right players as a team to make this work effectively. Having a center that can finish inside on the roll and also stretch the floor is harder to find than typically gets credit for, but is so crucial in opening up this kind of advantage creator.

Outside Shot/Off-ball

Sundell has a noticeable hitch in her shot from deep, something she’s cognizant of, but still shot nearly 40% last season from 3. However, the hitch does make it a bit tougher to get up when tightly contested.

Similar concerns were raised about Haliburton (still has a very noticeable , although I find it pretty important to note that he was a more willing shooter from deep his final season at ISU than Sundell was this past season. That’s not everything, but I do find willingness and self-confidence in a shot to be essential.

But, that’s all to say that I’m a believer in Sundell’s shot. Getting it off quicker and more consistently will be something I look for this year, and will be vital in hitting her higher levels as a player as a pro, but it’s on the table for her. With the kind of touch she has , and has continually proven to have, all the indicators are there for a player that has real potential to keep growing as a shooter. You can’t build a shooter from scratch, but you can refine and build up a better shooter who has a foundation of skill and instinct with the ball.

Haliburton has become one of the better self-created distance shooters in the NBA, less than 50% of his 3’s assisted during his two full seasons in Indiana.

Taking and making shots consistently when provided an under will be huge for Sundell, but I’d also posit that the pathways for her as an interior scorer are perhaps even more intriguing than they were for Haliburton.

She has room to become a post mismatch player, already having shown some ability to use her height to score over smaller guards. With her length and added scoring aggression, she could become one of the better foul drawers in the league, something she did at a high level her sophomore year (64.2% free throw rate in 2023) when Lee missed the season and K-State played small and spread out. Focus on an even more consistent runner/floater would supplement her already very effective mid-range game.

I’d also add that growing as a cutter and off-ball mover will be huge. I think she’s shown some ability to get off the ball and return to it, but there’s room to improve and it’s important to have that in a continuity and pace-based offense.

There’s so much to grasp when considering how effective she already is in so many areas.

Developmental Outlier

Haliburton was a 3-star recruit that was lanky and not on the pro radar when he was in high school. Sundell came to Manhattan, Kansas much the same, and it’s been a significant focus from her to add strength.

One of the things I’m so fascinated by in basketball (and sports at large) are developmental outliers. Development isn’t linear, you hear that so often, but I feel it’s not actually always listened to. When you shut out the possibility of a player being a pro before they even step foot on campus or because of ideas and philosophies you carry, it’s somewhat understandable (more so in a one and done league Draft like the NBA). But, again, with players who have shown that they aren’t just developmental outliers, but statistical outliers, I think we have to reframe our thinking.

The vision, court processing, and efficiency that these two players similarly brought to the table respectively is not normal. You can find parts of that blend anywhere, but it’s not often you find everything intertwined at a high level. They aren’t the norm, they’re the exception, and those three things are the embodiment of modern basketball and how the game has continued to shift across most every league.

This is not to say that this is “The Way” to play basketball or that teams should be built; nothing is a catch-all. However, I find it worth looking at and analyzing new ways to do and try things. Quickness in decision-making and court vision is something we need more of in this league, especially when packaging that with size and length. In a setting the prioritizes new ideas and concepts that have been proven in other realms of the game, Serena Sundell might be much more capable with the ball in her hands than she’s been projected as. A player like her is too intriguing and brings too much value to the court to let slip or put in a box as Tyrese Haliburton was not that long ago.

Instead of projecting and writing off what someone won’t be, these threshold outlier players deserve a different consideration and ideology.