Observing Offense via a Defensive Series

New Beginnings

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• The WNBA Draft (Specifically with player breakdowns and centralized draft boards)

• International scouting

• Player development/growth in and around the league

• Showcasing things that stand out from a play and style standpoint

• Dissecting things through team-building strategy and ideology

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Expect my initial Draft Board for the 2025 season within the next week. I have it mostly set, but am building out some graphics for it to make it look more polished.

Without further ado, let’s talk about the playoffs!

This Series is a Magnifying Glass of Modern Ball

The 2024 Semifinals between the Minnesota Lynx and Connecticut Sun has me captivated. Every series across the league has been a major source of intrigue and enjoyment for me (Basketball>>>), but when I watch this series, I can’t help but see it as a significant data point in looking at the way the league and style of play is shifting.

The top two defenses in the W this season, this has been largely chalked up as a defensive series. That’s not wrong! However, what I find so mesmerizing is what that truly means and how it plays out on court.

Both teams want to take things away from one another. They’re the two best teams (for different reasons) at doing so. Counterintuitively, series like this always seem to teach me the most about offense. When the team you’re facing is elite at making offense difficult, what do you do? How do you counter? How do you counter again?

All of that meshed in with personnel, and the evolution of the game playing out in lineups and the games within the game has me captivated. Game 4 took center stage Sunday, the Sun running away with it in the 4th quarter after a nail biting first half, coming back from a 7 point halftime deficit.

What changed?

Credit has to be given to Connecticut for ramped up defensive execution and rotations in the 2nd half. It also has to be pointed out that the Lynx missed quite a few open looks, but that’s part of the game; the rhythm and flow was not the same for Minnesota in the 2nd half, as the Sun applied better pressure, were tighter on switches, and flew around with purpose.

What also changed was the offense for the Sun. Because of the Sun finding ways to put the ball in the basket, they were able to keep it out of their own. It sounds simple, because it is, but I can’t point out enough how this series is a microcosm of the offense/defense push-pull. You cannot “just” be an offensive or defensive team.

There is no all in one, but there’s a baseline

• Consistently space the floor and make the defense care

• Accentuate your best players to create routinely efficient offense

• Have the versatility to play multiple different looks successfully and find solutions in game

• Be able to poke at and take advantage of opposing weaknesses while minimizing your own

Looking up and down the postseason, you can point out where some fell short. Indiana had the potency, but lacked the versatility and depth to problem solve (being inexperienced makes it tough too). Atlanta did not have the ability to consistently score and build off of what their best players bring to the table. Seattle’s inability to draw the defense out of the paint made scoring extremely difficult and closed passing/driving lanes. Phoenix’s inability to play multiple made it difficult to keep pace with a deep and versatile Minnesota team.

Again, I have to mention that the playoffs should not be used as the end all be all, there’s nuance in this, but it’s a large part of the story we’re breaking down and assessing.

When we’re in the playoffs, and it becomes a must win scenario for every game in essence, you truly see the chess match. Playing the percentages by and large goes out the window, and you have to roll the dice with your best options, best answers, and find what sticks.

For the Connecticut Sun, that was leaning into guard screening, inverted offense, and playing as small as they can go to put Minnesota’s defense in a bind, and give their own defense room to breath.

The Sun closed the game out and played much of the 2nd half with a lineup of Ty Harris/Marina Mabrey/DiJonai Carrington/Alyssa Thomas/DeWanna Bonner: That group played 8 (EIGHT) minutes together during the regular season, per PBP Stats.

They’ve played 22 minutes together in the postseason, putting together a +17.6 net rating, all the more noteworthy given that Ty Harris largely hadn’t played until last night due to an ankle injury suffered in game one against the Fever.

Before we even got to see the supercharged Sun lineup, there was a concerted difference in their second half approach. Ty Harris immediately got the party started working an empty side ball screen with Bri Jones into a pull-up 3 to open the scoring in the halfcourt after some back and forth transition play.

Then the lineup trots out after Jones comes off the court shortly after that possession.

We then get our first beautiful action between Harris and AT.

It’s simple, but by god is it effective and lethal when ran quickly and with force. Alanna Smith has been an absolute nightmare at the rim, blocking 11 shots this series and altering countless others.

Even though I would posit that Jones has had a better series than box score might indicate, part of the difficulty in having her on the court has been that she inherently tends to put Smith around the paint, which is right where she wants to be.

It’s in a weird spot where the Sun need points, but they also can’t afford leave anything on the table, particularly at the rim. A missed shot from Bri Jones at the rim has led to a 4 on 5 or other odd player advantage routinely.

With Jones off the court in this matchup, Smith is guarding Thomas, and has to come out to the perimeter. The additional motion and movement added with the quick pitch, and the fact that Ty has to be guarded as a threat off the catch, creates the bread and butter Connecticut is about to feast upon in the remaining frames.

When Thomas has that downhill lane with a half step, it is so difficult to guard, changing the finishing and driving angles.

Looking at a possession where the Lynx get a stop against this group, you can see the difference still. The Sun hit this double drag look into a flare screen multiple times in the second half, and it was highly effective at making the defense care and creating more manageable driving lanes.

Alanna Smith does a great job playing on the backfoot here after the set breaks down and Thomas attacks, but the aggressions stands out.

I think the biggest key last night was Thomas’ aggression, and there’s a bit of a chicken/egg scenario that comes into play for Thomas, but also for dribble-handoff/inverted offense hubs as a whole. It’s something we’ve seen a ton with Domantas Sabonis in the NBA, for instance.

What happens when denials off the ball hit? When unders are happening on ball screens? When the defense is playing off of your gravity?

The whole DHO hub, point-forward gravity offense doesn’t work unless you make them feel you. But, part of the difficulty for the Sun at times is when their shooting goes cold, there are players that can be played off, or there isn’t pace. That’s not a Thomas fault, that’s just what happens in an offense.

We saw in games two and three how difficult it was to attack the basket against the Lynx in any capacity. Were there pockets in which Thomas could’ve been more aggressive? Without question. But, by spreading the floor and making it simpler to hone in on those angles, it took away some of Minnesota’s ability to dictate what the Sun could do offensively.

As Connecticut’s defense tightened up and started to be able to get out and run the other way, this group really started to shine. I also can’t mention enough how great the Sun’s ATO’s and after break plays were. This stands out.

After having worked in multiple inverted actions with Thomas and Harris, as well as some layered secondary actions, you can’t give up the potential Harris open three if AT screens for her, so Smith is playing up near the level of the screen ready to apply pressure. BAM… reject and a straight line drive to the rim from Harris, and there’s not a rim protector in sight.

With AT being guarded as the 5, it changed up so much of what was working for Minnesota’s defense prior, and she doesn’t even touch the ball on this play.

The threats Connecticut was able to put up in early offense moved the Lynx (and me), and I’d say this is where you could see the most concerted change in Thomas’ aggression. There are times when Connecticut can hunt something in early offense, but it felt the best it ever has in this game.

The shot doesn’t fall, but again, just watching how the defense is reacting means something to me. This is a defense on its heels that’s feeling applied pressure.

The guard screening, even when hugged up on by the defense, just gums up so much for a defense. And the speed and pace from Thomas was game-changing.

Now, we start to see the Lynx in an uncomfortable bind: They can’t switch matchups they were in previous games, because every player involved is a threat. With that pace, and that aggression, and the lanes expanded….

Oh hey, if you want to try and help on that drive/post-up, AT is going to make that read and kick it out with quickness to the shooting pocket.

This left Minnesota in such a difficult place, ultimately resorting to a closing lineup with Napheesa Collier at the 5, a group that had played even less minutes together than Connecticut’s (7 total). We then saw the cross screens turn into even more back screens, AT find even more comfort as a driver and handler on the perimeter, including an absolutely filthy crossover into a Magic-esque behind the back pass and impromptu screen after drawing strong side help… just mesmerizing stuff.

Can Connecticut rock out with this for a full game or another full series against a much bigger team if they advance? I have no clue, to be honest, but that’s part of the beauty of the game. This series and these teams have both made me think so much and, I wager it’s making the rest of the league do the same (or should be if it’s not already).